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Q3 quarterly reporting — status update

Xlagent <agent@xlagent.ai>

To: John Doe

Q3 quarterly report.pptx

2.4 MB

Q3 portfolio data.xlsx

128 KB

Hi John,

Here's the status update on the Q3 reporting preparation.

I received updates from all but one of the investment teams.

Attached the first draft of the report and supporting materials. I will send you a final version once I have received all the information.

Regards,
Xlagent

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Geographic Footprint

Colors follow revenue mix legend

Revenue

€42M
Netherlands
52%
Belgium
28%
Germany
14%
Other
6%

Investment Highlights

Northwind Logistics — platform acquisition in Benelux industrial logistics, €185M equity cheque at 11.2x LTM EBITDA.

Market

  • ▪€4.2B addressable regional freight market, growing 6% p.a.
  • ▪Top-5 player in NL/BE with 9% share; route density advantage in core lanes
  • ▪Fragmented competitive set — 200+ sub-scale operators support bolt-on pipeline

Business

  • ▪Contracted revenue 78%; top-10 customers represent 41% of sales
  • ▪Proprietary TMS rollout 68% complete; full network by Q3 2026
  • ▪38 owned depots with 94% average utilization; greenfield optionality in DACH

Financial

  • ▪EBITDA margin +610bps since 2019; capex normalized at 4% of sales
  • ▪Working capital seasonality funded through existing RCF facility
  • ▪Net leverage 2.1x at close; path to 1.5x by year three on FCF sweep

Risks & mitigants

  • ▪Customer concentration mitigated by 3-year average contract tenor
  • ▪Fuel exposure hedged 12 months forward; pass-through clauses in 71% of contracts
  • ▪Driver shortage offset by in-house academy and 18% below-industry turnover

Revenue & EBITDA

Revenue
EBITDA
14% CAGR|Margin 17% → 21%
17.1%
2019
17.8%
2020
18.1%
2021
18.8%
2022
20.5%
2023
21.4%
2024E
€M201920202021202220232024E
Revenue242731343842
EBITDA4.14.85.66.47.89

Source: VDD, management accounts · LTM through Sep 2025

Geographic Footprint

Colors follow revenue mix legend

Revenue

€42M
Netherlands
52%
Belgium
28%
Germany
14%
Other
6%

Investment Highlights

Northwind Logistics — platform acquisition in Benelux industrial logistics, €185M equity cheque at 11.2x LTM EBITDA.

Market

  • ▪€4.2B addressable regional freight market, growing 6% p.a.
  • ▪Top-5 player in NL/BE with 9% share; route density advantage in core lanes
  • ▪Fragmented competitive set — 200+ sub-scale operators support bolt-on pipeline

Business

  • ▪Contracted revenue 78%; top-10 customers represent 41% of sales
  • ▪Proprietary TMS rollout 68% complete; full network by Q3 2026
  • ▪38 owned depots with 94% average utilization; greenfield optionality in DACH

Financial

  • ▪EBITDA margin +610bps since 2019; capex normalized at 4% of sales
  • ▪Working capital seasonality funded through existing RCF facility
  • ▪Net leverage 2.1x at close; path to 1.5x by year three on FCF sweep

Risks & mitigants

  • ▪Customer concentration mitigated by 3-year average contract tenor
  • ▪Fuel exposure hedged 12 months forward; pass-through clauses in 71% of contracts
  • ▪Driver shortage offset by in-house academy and 18% below-industry turnover

Revenue & EBITDA

Revenue
EBITDA
14% CAGR|Margin 17% → 21%
17.1%
2019
17.8%
2020
18.1%
2021
18.8%
2022
20.5%
2023
21.4%
2024E
€M201920202021202220232024E
Revenue242731343842
EBITDA4.14.85.66.47.89

Source: VDD, management accounts · LTM through Sep 2025

Geographic Footprint

Colors follow revenue mix legend

Revenue

€42M
Netherlands
52%
Belgium
28%
Germany
14%
Other
6%

Investment Highlights

Northwind Logistics — platform acquisition in Benelux industrial logistics, €185M equity cheque at 11.2x LTM EBITDA.

Market

  • ▪€4.2B addressable regional freight market, growing 6% p.a.
  • ▪Top-5 player in NL/BE with 9% share; route density advantage in core lanes
  • ▪Fragmented competitive set — 200+ sub-scale operators support bolt-on pipeline

Business

  • ▪Contracted revenue 78%; top-10 customers represent 41% of sales
  • ▪Proprietary TMS rollout 68% complete; full network by Q3 2026
  • ▪38 owned depots with 94% average utilization; greenfield optionality in DACH

Financial

  • ▪EBITDA margin +610bps since 2019; capex normalized at 4% of sales
  • ▪Working capital seasonality funded through existing RCF facility
  • ▪Net leverage 2.1x at close; path to 1.5x by year three on FCF sweep

Risks & mitigants

  • ▪Customer concentration mitigated by 3-year average contract tenor
  • ▪Fuel exposure hedged 12 months forward; pass-through clauses in 71% of contracts
  • ▪Driver shortage offset by in-house academy and 18% below-industry turnover

Revenue & EBITDA

Revenue
EBITDA
14% CAGR|Margin 17% → 21%
17.1%
2019
17.8%
2020
18.1%
2021
18.8%
2022
20.5%
2023
21.4%
2024E
€M201920202021202220232024E
Revenue242731343842
EBITDA4.14.85.66.47.89

Source: VDD, management accounts · LTM through Sep 2025

fx=SUM(C18:H18)+I20
ABCDEFGHI
1Unlevered DCF — Northwind Logistics
22025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ETerminalNotes
3Valuation assumptions
4WACC9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%BETA 1.15
5Terminal growth——————2.5%Gordon
6Tax rate25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
7Exit EBITDA multiple—————12.0x12.0xFY30E
8Operating forecast (€M)
9Revenue45.249.854.158.663.067.469.1
10 Growth %—10.2%8.6%8.3%7.5%7.0%2.5%
11EBITDA10.111.412.613.814.916.116.5
12 Margin22.3%22.9%23.3%23.5%23.7%23.9%23.9%
13D&A(1.6)(1.7)(1.8)(1.9)(2.0)(2.1)(2.1)
14EBIT8.59.710.811.912.914.014.4
15Taxes(2.1)(2.4)(2.7)(3.0)(3.2)(3.5)(3.6)
16NOPAT6.47.38.18.99.710.510.8
17Free cash flow bridge
18(+) D&A1.61.71.81.92.02.12.1
19(-) Capex(1.8)(2.0)(2.1)(2.2)(2.3)(2.4)(2.4)
20(-) Δ NWC(0.6)(0.7)(0.5)(0.6)(0.5)(0.4)(0.2)
21Unlevered FCF5.66.37.38.08.99.810.3
22Discounting
23Discount period0.51.52.53.54.55.55.5Mid-year
24Discount factor0.9570.8740.7980.7290.6660.6090.609
25PV of FCF5.45.55.85.85.96.06.3
26Terminal value
27Terminal EBITDA—————16.116.5
28Exit multiple—————12.0x12.0x
29Terminal value—————193.2198.0
30PV of terminal value——————120.5
31Valuation output
32Enterprise value155.4€M
33Less: net debt(57.5)
34Plus: cash4.2
35Equity value102.1€M
36vs. offer price€101M+1%
DCFTenancy
fx=SUMIF(N:N,"Occupied",E:E)/SUM(D:D)*1000
ABCDEFGHIJKLMN
1Tenancy schedule — Northwind Logistics portfolio (38 depots)
2UnitTenantTypeGLARent p.a.€/sqmStartBreakExpiryTermReviewERVRev %Status
3NL-01-AFreshMart BVCold store4,820482100Jan-19Mar-26Mar-282.4CPI+1%108+8%Occupied
4NL-01-BAgriCo InternationalDry warehouse6,15049280Jun-20—Jun-304.7Fixed 2.5%88+10%Occupied
5NL-02-ABenelux PharmaCross-dock3,400374110Sep-18Sep-25Sep-250.0Open market118+14%Break due
6NL-03-AVacantDry warehouse2,900———————82—Vacant
7NL subtotal17,2701,348783.8 WALT+9%
8BE-01-AEuroFoods SACold store5,600616110Apr-21—Apr-315.5CPI+1.5%121+10%Occupied
9BE-01-BLogiParts NVMezzanine1,85014880Feb-22Aug-26Feb-271.4Fixed 2%86+5%Occupied
10BE-02-AChemTrans GmbHHazmat bay2,200286130Nov-19Nov-25Nov-250.2Open market142+11%Renewal
11BE-03-AMetro Retail DCCross-dock4,100451110Jul-17—Jul-271.8CPI+1%115+6%Occupied
12BE subtotal13,7501,5011094.2 WALT+8%
13DE-01-ARhein SpeditionDry warehouse8,40075690Mar-20—Mar-304.5Fixed 2.5%96+7%Occupied
14DE-02-AAutoParts AGCross-dock3,75033890Jan-21Jan-26Jan-315.3CPI+1%94+4%Occupied
15DE-03-AVacant (spec)Cold store4,200———————112—Vacant
16DE-04-AFreshChain GmbHCold store6,100671110May-19May-25May-250.1Open market118+12%Break due
17DE subtotal22,4501,765994.6 WALT+7%
18Portfolio total34 tenants312,48028,640924.1 WALT€29.1M ERV+9%94% occ.
19Reversion upside2,470+8.6%Under-rented
20Break / expiry ≤12m18,4501,8926.6% GLAMonitor
DCFTenancy
fx=SUM(C18:H18)+I20
ABCDEFGHI
1Unlevered DCF — Northwind Logistics
22025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ETerminalNotes
3Valuation assumptions
4WACC9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%BETA 1.15
5Terminal growth——————2.5%Gordon
6Tax rate25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
7Exit EBITDA multiple—————12.0x12.0xFY30E
8Operating forecast (€M)
9Revenue45.249.854.158.663.067.469.1
10 Growth %—10.2%8.6%8.3%7.5%7.0%2.5%
11EBITDA10.111.412.613.814.916.116.5
12 Margin22.3%22.9%23.3%23.5%23.7%23.9%23.9%
13D&A(1.6)(1.7)(1.8)(1.9)(2.0)(2.1)(2.1)
14EBIT8.59.710.811.912.914.014.4
15Taxes(2.1)(2.4)(2.7)(3.0)(3.2)(3.5)(3.6)
16NOPAT6.47.38.18.99.710.510.8
17Free cash flow bridge
18(+) D&A1.61.71.81.92.02.12.1
19(-) Capex(1.8)(2.0)(2.1)(2.2)(2.3)(2.4)(2.4)
20(-) Δ NWC(0.6)(0.7)(0.5)(0.6)(0.5)(0.4)(0.2)
21Unlevered FCF5.66.37.38.08.99.810.3
22Discounting
23Discount period0.51.52.53.54.55.55.5Mid-year
24Discount factor0.9570.8740.7980.7290.6660.6090.609
25PV of FCF5.45.55.85.85.96.06.3
26Terminal value
27Terminal EBITDA—————16.116.5
28Exit multiple—————12.0x12.0x
29Terminal value—————193.2198.0
30PV of terminal value——————120.5
31Valuation output
32Enterprise value155.4€M
33Less: net debt(57.5)
34Plus: cash4.2
35Equity value102.1€M
36vs. offer price€101M+1%
DCFTenancy
fx=SUMIF(N:N,"Occupied",E:E)/SUM(D:D)*1000
ABCDEFGHIJKLMN
1Tenancy schedule — Northwind Logistics portfolio (38 depots)
2UnitTenantTypeGLARent p.a.€/sqmStartBreakExpiryTermReviewERVRev %Status
3NL-01-AFreshMart BVCold store4,820482100Jan-19Mar-26Mar-282.4CPI+1%108+8%Occupied
4NL-01-BAgriCo InternationalDry warehouse6,15049280Jun-20—Jun-304.7Fixed 2.5%88+10%Occupied
5NL-02-ABenelux PharmaCross-dock3,400374110Sep-18Sep-25Sep-250.0Open market118+14%Break due
6NL-03-AVacantDry warehouse2,900———————82—Vacant
7NL subtotal17,2701,348783.8 WALT+9%
8BE-01-AEuroFoods SACold store5,600616110Apr-21—Apr-315.5CPI+1.5%121+10%Occupied
9BE-01-BLogiParts NVMezzanine1,85014880Feb-22Aug-26Feb-271.4Fixed 2%86+5%Occupied
10BE-02-AChemTrans GmbHHazmat bay2,200286130Nov-19Nov-25Nov-250.2Open market142+11%Renewal
11BE-03-AMetro Retail DCCross-dock4,100451110Jul-17—Jul-271.8CPI+1%115+6%Occupied
12BE subtotal13,7501,5011094.2 WALT+8%
13DE-01-ARhein SpeditionDry warehouse8,40075690Mar-20—Mar-304.5Fixed 2.5%96+7%Occupied
14DE-02-AAutoParts AGCross-dock3,75033890Jan-21Jan-26Jan-315.3CPI+1%94+4%Occupied
15DE-03-AVacant (spec)Cold store4,200———————112—Vacant
16DE-04-AFreshChain GmbHCold store6,100671110May-19May-25May-250.1Open market118+12%Break due
17DE subtotal22,4501,765994.6 WALT+7%
18Portfolio total34 tenants312,48028,640924.1 WALT€29.1M ERV+9%94% occ.
19Reversion upside2,470+8.6%Under-rented
20Break / expiry ≤12m18,4501,8926.6% GLAMonitor
DCFTenancy
fx=SUM(C18:H18)+I20
ABCDEFGHI
1Unlevered DCF — Northwind Logistics
22025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ETerminalNotes
3Valuation assumptions
4WACC9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%BETA 1.15
5Terminal growth——————2.5%Gordon
6Tax rate25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
7Exit EBITDA multiple—————12.0x12.0xFY30E
8Operating forecast (€M)
9Revenue45.249.854.158.663.067.469.1
10 Growth %—10.2%8.6%8.3%7.5%7.0%2.5%
11EBITDA10.111.412.613.814.916.116.5
12 Margin22.3%22.9%23.3%23.5%23.7%23.9%23.9%
13D&A(1.6)(1.7)(1.8)(1.9)(2.0)(2.1)(2.1)
14EBIT8.59.710.811.912.914.014.4
15Taxes(2.1)(2.4)(2.7)(3.0)(3.2)(3.5)(3.6)
16NOPAT6.47.38.18.99.710.510.8
17Free cash flow bridge
18(+) D&A1.61.71.81.92.02.12.1
19(-) Capex(1.8)(2.0)(2.1)(2.2)(2.3)(2.4)(2.4)
20(-) Δ NWC(0.6)(0.7)(0.5)(0.6)(0.5)(0.4)(0.2)
21Unlevered FCF5.66.37.38.08.99.810.3
22Discounting
23Discount period0.51.52.53.54.55.55.5Mid-year
24Discount factor0.9570.8740.7980.7290.6660.6090.609
25PV of FCF5.45.55.85.85.96.06.3
26Terminal value
27Terminal EBITDA—————16.116.5
28Exit multiple—————12.0x12.0x
29Terminal value—————193.2198.0
30PV of terminal value——————120.5
31Valuation output
32Enterprise value155.4€M
33Less: net debt(57.5)
34Plus: cash4.2
35Equity value102.1€M
36vs. offer price€101M+1%
DCFTenancy
fx=SUMIF(N:N,"Occupied",E:E)/SUM(D:D)*1000
ABCDEFGHIJKLMN
1Tenancy schedule — Northwind Logistics portfolio (38 depots)
2UnitTenantTypeGLARent p.a.€/sqmStartBreakExpiryTermReviewERVRev %Status
3NL-01-AFreshMart BVCold store4,820482100Jan-19Mar-26Mar-282.4CPI+1%108+8%Occupied
4NL-01-BAgriCo InternationalDry warehouse6,15049280Jun-20—Jun-304.7Fixed 2.5%88+10%Occupied
5NL-02-ABenelux PharmaCross-dock3,400374110Sep-18Sep-25Sep-250.0Open market118+14%Break due
6NL-03-AVacantDry warehouse2,900———————82—Vacant
7NL subtotal17,2701,348783.8 WALT+9%
8BE-01-AEuroFoods SACold store5,600616110Apr-21—Apr-315.5CPI+1.5%121+10%Occupied
9BE-01-BLogiParts NVMezzanine1,85014880Feb-22Aug-26Feb-271.4Fixed 2%86+5%Occupied
10BE-02-AChemTrans GmbHHazmat bay2,200286130Nov-19Nov-25Nov-250.2Open market142+11%Renewal
11BE-03-AMetro Retail DCCross-dock4,100451110Jul-17—Jul-271.8CPI+1%115+6%Occupied
12BE subtotal13,7501,5011094.2 WALT+8%
13DE-01-ARhein SpeditionDry warehouse8,40075690Mar-20—Mar-304.5Fixed 2.5%96+7%Occupied
14DE-02-AAutoParts AGCross-dock3,75033890Jan-21Jan-26Jan-315.3CPI+1%94+4%Occupied
15DE-03-AVacant (spec)Cold store4,200———————112—Vacant
16DE-04-AFreshChain GmbHCold store6,100671110May-19May-25May-250.1Open market118+12%Break due
17DE subtotal22,4501,765994.6 WALT+7%
18Portfolio total34 tenants312,48028,640924.1 WALT€29.1M ERV+9%94% occ.
19Reversion upside2,470+8.6%Under-rented
20Break / expiry ≤12m18,4501,8926.6% GLAMonitor
DCFTenancy

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Investment committee memo

The sponsor equity cheque is €185M with management rolling 15% (€12M co-invest). Gross margin expanded to 41.2% while capex normalized at 4.1% of sales.

Contracted revenue represents 78% of sales with average customer tenure of 3.2 years. The platform operates 38 owned depots across Benelux and DACH, with proprietary TMS rollout 68% complete across the network.

Management expects bolt-on acquisitions to add €8–12M of run-rate EBITDA by year three at an average entry multiple of 8.5x. Working capital seasonality is funded through the existing RCF facility, with fuel exposure hedged 12 months forward.

Inconsistency detected

Current value€185M
Suggested value€172M

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